July 26th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the Bellevue Real Estate report for July 26, 2010.
Tuesday, June Housing Starts came in down 5.0% from May to a 549,000 annual rate. This was below expectations, but still up 15.1% from the low they hit in April 2009. Most of the drop came from volatile multi-family starts. Single-family starts were down a mere 0.7%. Most significantly, housing completions shot up 26.2% in June, the biggest monthly gain going back to the late 1960’s. Builders clearly shifted focus from starting to finishing, as they pushed to close sales qualifying for the homebuyer tax credit. Finally, Building Permits were UP 2.1% for June, beating expectations, so things are looking up for the months ahead.
Thursday saw June Existing Home Sales down 5.1% to an annual rate of 5.37 million. But this beat expectations for the fourth time in five months and was 9.8% above sales a year ago. The median price for an existing home also gained in June, coming in at $183,700. This is up 1.0% from last year. In addition, the FHFA price index for homes financed by conforming mortgages went up 0.5% in May, increasing for the third month in a row.
National average rates for fixed rate mortgages hit new lows, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of conforming loans. So refinance applications shot up 7.6% over the week before, but best of all, purchase loan applications were also up a healthy 3.4%.
>> Review of Last Week
UP WE GO… It was another interesting week on Wall Street, with stocks briefly headed in the wrong direction before ending the week decidedly UP. The fact was, the good economic news simply outweighed any disappointments by a lot. The net result for the stock markets left all major indexes resoundingly UP for the week…from 3% to 4%! For the week, the Dow ended UP 3.2%, to 10424.62; the S&P 500 was UP 3.5%, to 1102.66; and the Nasdaq was UP 4.1%, to 2269.47.
Topping the disappointments were Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments before Congress that the U.S. economic outlook is “unusually uncertain.” This allowed him to add that the Fed stands ready to take additional action, if necessary, to either do more boosting or halt inflation. OK, but right now there’s plenty of evidence the world’s largest economy is recovering just fine, if at a slightly slower rate than before. Earnings from IBM and Amazon.com also disappointed, but overall there were pretty slim pickings for the bears.
There actually was a big batch of strong earnings. Of the 150 S&P500 companies who have reported Q2 results, 85% of them beat earnings estimates by an average of 7%. General Electric raised its quarterly dividend 20%, the first increase since it historically cut its dividend over a year ago. Even the media is beginning to admit companies appear to be doing well. Then Friday we got the long-awaited results of the European bank stress tests, which came out better than expected. There was some grousing over how stressful the tests truly were, even though the Committee of European Banking Supervisors hadn’t seemed too soft before.
Tuesday, June Housing Starts came in down 5.0% from May to a 549,000 annual rate. This was below expectations, but still up 15.1% from the low they hit in April 2009. Most of the drop came from volatile multi-family starts. Single-family starts were down a mere 0.7%. Most significantly, housing completions shot up 26.2% in June, the biggest monthly gain going back to the late 1960’s. Builders clearly shifted focus from starting to finishing, as they pushed to close sales qualifying for the homebuyer tax credit. Finally, Building Permits were UP 2.1% for June, beating expectations, so things are looking up for the months ahead.
Thursday saw June Existing Home Sales down 5.1% to an annual rate of 5.37 million. But this beat expectations for the fourth time in five months and was 9.8% above sales a year ago. The median price for an existing home also gained in June, coming in at $183,700. This is up 1.0% from last year. In addition, the FHFA price index for homes financed by conforming mortgages went up 0.5% in May, increasing for the third month in a row.
National average rates for fixed rate mortgages hit new lows, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of conforming loans. So refinance applications shot up 7.6% over the week before, but best of all, purchase loan applications were also up a healthy 3.4%.
>> Review of Last Week
UP WE GO… It was another interesting week on Wall Street, with stocks briefly headed in the wrong direction before ending the week decidedly UP. The fact was, the good economic news simply outweighed any disappointments by a lot. The net result for the stock markets left all major indexes resoundingly UP for the week…from 3% to 4%! For the week, the Dow ended UP 3.2%, to 10424.62; the S&P 500 was UP 3.5%, to 1102.66; and the Nasdaq was UP 4.1%, to 2269.47.
Topping the disappointments were Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments before Congress that the U.S. economic outlook is “unusually uncertain.” This allowed him to add that the Fed stands ready to take additional action, if necessary, to either do more boosting or halt inflation. OK, but right now there’s plenty of evidence the world’s largest economy is recovering just fine, if at a slightly slower rate than before. Earnings from IBM and Amazon.com also disappointed, but overall there were pretty slim pickings for the bears.
There actually was a big batch of strong earnings. Of the 150 S&P500 companies who have reported Q2 results, 85% of them beat earnings estimates by an average of 7%. General Electric raised its quarterly dividend 20%, the first increase since it historically cut its dividend over a year ago. Even the media is beginning to admit companies appear to be doing well. Then Friday we got the long-awaited results of the European bank stress tests, which came out better than expected. There was some grousing over how stressful the tests truly were, even though the Committee of European Banking Supervisors hadn’t seemed too soft before.
July 22nd, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Pi-Plus College Board Prep Course: Essential, Affordable, Convenient – and Effective
Every parent feels the pressure. Slots in the college of your child’s choice are limited, and everything seems to hang on that college board score. Is your student ready to take these all-important tests?
It’s true that most college prep work is done in the classroom. If your student has been keeping up with school work over the course of his or her high school career, your student has laid the groundwork for a good PSAT, SAT, ACT, or AP score. However, studies show that high school students who take test prep courses often score significantly higher than those who don’t, and that students who take the PSAT score an average of 150 points higher on the SAT than those who take only the SAT.
There are many options when searching for help to prepare your student for the college board tests. The library has dozens of books, there are many prep courses available online, and there are companies that offer hands-on test preparation. Considerations include price, convenience, and effectiveness. Often the deciding factor is your student’s style of learning. Sometimes the deciding factor is price: the Princeton Review website charges $1400 for its small group PSAT review per student!
Private Instruction (Pi) Plus Tutors (“PiPlus”) specializes in teaching and tutoring. Ellen Forster, founder of Pi-Plus, believes that small group settings, individualized attention, and extra help outside the school day are critical to academic success, whether in a general high school setting, or for the focused curriculum of a college board prep course.
This summer, Pi-Plus is offering test prep courses that cover all the bases. These courses will provide tutoring in any subject and will familiarize your student with test taking procedure: math, vocabulary, and question structure. There will be plenty of practice in different subject areas and plenty of time to ask questions.
Each session will:
- Provide 16.5 hours of small group and individual tutoring
- Build your student’s confidence in test taking skills
- Identify your student’s strengths and weaknesses
- Develop an individualized improvement plan for your student
- Offer a structured yet flexible curriculum that covers all test subjects
- Provide highly qualified and skilled educators
- Provide two Princeton Review practice tests and scoring
To insure a low tutor to student ratio, each course limited to an enrollment of 20 students.
Price: The charge for each Pi-Plus session is $480 plus a $25 registration fee (which is waived for existing Pi Plus or Kennelly Keys Music clients.)
Location: Roy’s Place Studio & Recital Hall, 4926 196th St. SW, Lynnwood, WA 98036
Time: Monday through Thursday, 6:30 p.m. – 8:30 p.m.
Dates: Choose from these sessions:
Session 2: Aug 2-5, 9-13
Session 3: Aug 23-26, Aug 30-Sept 2
Guarantee: Pi Plus guarantees a prorated tuition refund if you’re not satisfied at the end of the first week.
For more information, go to piplustutors.com or call (425) 315-9850.
July 19th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the Bellevue Real Estate Report for July 19, 2010.
Some analysts feel the homebuyer tax credits artificially boosted the housing market by pushing forward home sales that would have happened later. Others feel most buyers would have bought anyway. In any case, there’s now concern about a coming drop in sales. Well, June sales figures should still benefit from activity spurred on by the tax credits. And tax credit sales should even help monthly reports through September, now that buyers in contract on April 30 have been given until September 30 to close.
Nonetheless, we ought to keep an eye on monthly Pending Home Sales, which track signed contracts that turn into sales a few months out. Even though we may have a sales dip after the tax credit, the fact remains that near historic low mortgage interest rates are getting people back into the market. These rates, combined with today’s prices, have made homes more affordable than they’ve been in years, letting many buyers move up to better neighborhoods with more choices.
But buyers shouldn’t wait. The National Association of Realtors chief economist sees the median home price rising nationally 2% to 3% this year. The NAR’s CEO feels sales will pick up in the fall and that the down-cycle has run its course. The chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com also believes the housing crash is nearly over. And we all know mortgage rates won’t stay at their current levels indefinitely. In other words, this could be one of the best times to buy a home in decades.
UP AND DOWN… The stock market indexes were up nicely through Wednesday, continuing last week’s rally, then slipped slightly on Thursday before plunging more than 261 points Friday. For the week, the declines hovered around 1%, not too bad considering the volatile atmosphere of the proceedings on Wall Street. Nonetheless, negative feelings prevailed, so for the week, the Dow ended down 1.0%, to 10097.90; the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, to 1064.88; and the Nasdaq was down 0.8%, to 2179.05.
The problems Friday centered on a drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number and soft top-line Q2 revenues from Bank of America, Citigroup, and GE, even though bottom-line earnings from these behemoths beat expectations. The big disappointment came from Google, which missed earnings estimates even though revenue grew a faster than expected 25% for the quarter. But Google was the ONLY major company reporting last week that did not BEAT earnings forecasts.
We also heard complaints about some of the economic data. The trade deficit increased in May, but exports are UP 21.0% in the past year. Yes, May retail sales were off half a percent, but the annual growth rate for retail in the last nine months remains a respectable 6.7%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed wholesale and consumer inflation down a tad in June. This got analysts fretting about deflation, but both PPI and CPI are actually up from a year ago.
July 14th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that just over 5% of the senior population resides in a long-term care facility (a nursing home, boarding home, assisted living, etc.). As age increases, the likelihood of an individual residing in a facility increases. For instance, approximately half of all seniors age 95 and older reside in nursing homes.
In the year 2000, the majority of Bellevue residents resided in single-family homes: 99.3%, leaving only a remaining 0.7% of residents who resided in care homes, such as Bellevue Assisted Living facilities. However, 28% of all households were single-person households, many of them with elderly residents. Those same individuals have aged ten years since the last available Census data, and many of them have likely reached a point at which they can no longer remain alone in their homes.
Even more compelling: over one-third of homes with at least one resident over the age of 65 were single-person homes, and 44% of homes with at least one resident over the age of 75 were single-person homes. Remember, the likelihood of requiring assisted care increases with age. Pair this information with the overall growth of the senior population in Bellevue (which we covered in a recent post), and the numbers start to look a bit more promising.
Opportunities in senior housing rely heavily on a number of variables. The current care options in Bellevue are adequate to meet the needs of the (approximately) 1% of Bellevue residents living in a facility, as of 2000. But the baby boomer generation is entering its senior years, and Americans have longer life expectancies due to leading active lifestyles and advances in diagnostics and medicine. It’s also likely that utilization of long-term care services will increase with changes to America’s health care system that promise to provide seniors with better access to care.
As these changes take effect, even if the percentage of overall residents utilizing long-term care facilities remains steady, we’ll see greater numbers of individuals residing in assisted living, nursing homes, and other care facilities. Current capacities won’t be adequate to meet the needs of the rapidly growing senior population if all predictions prove true. The coming years will provide opportunities for senior living providers in the area, but the tide can turn quickly if too many entrepreneurs jump on the bandwagon. Our advice? Get in early and establish your brand to ensure your place in what is already a highly competitive industry.
Chris Rodde is the CEO of SeniorHomes.com, a free resource for people looking for senior housing or senior care for a loved one or themselves. With valuable articles and a comprehensive directory of care options, SeniorHomes.com is the best place to start your search for assisted living, independent living, Alzheimer’s care, a retirement community or home care.
July 12th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the Bellevue Real Estate Report for July 12, 2010.
Last week I reported that on Friday, the President signed into law a bill that extends to September 30 the closing deadline for claiming the federal homebuyer tax credit. We want to add he signed a second bill that retroactively reinstates the National Flood Insurance program, which expired May 31, until September 30. This news is important for home buyers who are shopping in areas where flood insurance is necessary to get a mortgage. It would obviously behoove these buyers to close before September 30.
National average mortgage rates hit new lows again last week, as reported in Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. However, the Mortgage Bankers Association revealed that it was refinancing homeowners who were principally taking advantage of these rates, making up the lion’s share of last week’s loan applications. Incidentally, with these heightened levels of refi activity, the effective rate of all outstanding mortgages was just under 6% in the first quarter of 2010, the lowest on record since 1977.
DOUBLE DIP DOUBLE TALK… Lately it’s been hard to ignore all the talk about threats of a “double-dip” recession. So last week it was refreshing to see The Wall Street Journal identify all this talk as “exaggerated fears of a double-dip recession.” They pointed out: “Growth may be slowing from its first-quarter peak…but most indicators point to continued global growth.” Investors quickly came to their senses, stopping the recent stock market slide and sending all major indexes up for the week by 5% and more!
There certainly was adequate support for a more positive economic outlook. The “continued global growth” the Journal mentioned was backed by the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF increased its estimate of 2010 GDP growth from 4.2% to 4.6%. Some fretted that the ISM Services Index dropped a tad from its May reading. But levels above 50 signal expansion, so June’s 53.8 shows our non-manufacturing sectors are still experiencing healthy economic growth.
Initial jobless claims came in better than expected for the week, dropping by 21,000. Retailers reported June same store sales, which weren’t the debacle some had predicted, with Macy’s and Nordstrom actually coming in with some pretty good numbers. Finally, the Q2 corporate earnings season begins this week and first estimates are that profits will be up 34% overall vs. last year. Does any of this sound like a dip to you?
For the week, the Dow ended UP 5.3%, to 10198.03; the S&P 500 was UP 5.4%, to 1077.96; and the Nasdaq was UP 5.0%, to 2196.45.
July 5th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the Bellevue Real Estate report for July 5, 2010.
Last Thursday pending home sales, a measure of contracts signed for existing homes, were reported off 30% in May compared to the prior month. This of course was simply the result of the end of the homebuyer tax credit, which required a signed contract by April 30. Common sense tells us many of those April contracts would have happened in May or even later if it weren’t for the pressure to qualify for the tax credit.
More good news on the price front, as the Case-Shiller home price index was UP 0.4% in April, seasonally-adjusted, and up a comfortable 3.8% versus a year ago. Case-Shiller tracks home prices in the 20 largest metro areas. This follows the prior week’s FHFA home price index, which was UP 0.8% for April for homes financed with conforming mortgages. Buyers take note.
Friday, the President signed into law a bill that extends the closing deadline for claiming the federal homebuyer tax credit to September 30. The National Association of Realtors estimated that up to 180,000 homebuyers in contract by April 30 could have missed the June 30 closing because of processing delays due to the huge volume of buyers seeking the tax credit.
OFF AGAIN… Investors were back in worry mode last week, still concerned about European debt and the speed (or lack thereof) of our own economic recovery. At the Group of Twenty meeting in Toronto, the financial leaders of the world’s largest economies didn’t say or do much to raise spirits on Wall Street. So, stocks slid another week, as investors sold off their equity holdings and sought safer places to put their money.
The week began with May personal income UP 0.4% and personal spending UP 0.2%. For the last six months, personal income is UP 4.6% annually and spending UP 3.8% annually. Overall PCE (consumer inflation) was flat for May, up only 0.9% annually for the last six months. Thursday brought the pending home sales data covered above. This was followed by the ISM index showing manufacturing still grew strongly in June, though slightly below May’s reading.
Friday’s employment numbers showed a drop of 125,000 jobs for June but April/May revisions added 25,000, so the net loss was 100,000. Furthermore, as the President himself pointed out that morning, the report “…reflected the planned phase out of 225,000 temporary Census jobs, but it also showed the sixth straight month of job growth in the private sector. All told, our economy has created nearly 600,000 private sector jobs this year.” Finally, the unemployment rate, expected to edge up a tad, dropped from 9.7% in May to 9.5% for June.
For the week, the Dow ended down 4.5%, to 9686.48; the S&P 500 was down 5.0%, to 1022.58; and the Nasdaq was down 5.9%, to 2091.79.
July 4th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Currently serving the nearly 15,000 seniors (as of 2000 U.S. Census data) in Bellevue are a number of senior housing options. Facilities must be licensed by the state of Washington in order for Medicaid to be a payment option, but keep in mind that not all facilities, even if state-licensed, accept Medicaid.
The Washington State Department of Social & Health Services licenses three types of senior living communities, including adult family homes, boarding homes, and nursing homes. Non-licensed facilities – those that typically accept only private sources as payment – include independent living communities and continuing care retirement communities.
Adult family homes and boarding homes are similar. Boarding homes are also referred to as assisted living facilities, although you’ll occasionally hear the term used to describe an adult family home. An adult family home typically houses up to six residents, while a boarding home usually cares for seven or more residents at a time. Both types of facilities offer laundry services, personal care at varying levels, and meals.
Nursing care is sometimes offered at a Bellevue assisted living facility, but is rarely round-the-clock. However, a state-licensed Bellevue boarding home can provide care at three levels, including Adult Residential Care, Enhanced Adult Residential Care, and Enhanced Adult Residential Care – Specialized Dementia Services.
Nursing homes offer the highest level of care among licensed senior living facilities in Bellevue, offering round-the-clock nursing care, physical and occupational therapy, social services, and activities and socialization. Residents need not be terminal or severely disabled in order to stay at a Bellevue nursing home; in fact, many residents are there for rehabilitation or short-term nursing care.
Independent living facilities are geared towards more active residents who don’t require day-to-day assistance with activities of daily living. Residents at these facilities are typically 55 years and older, and they take responsibility for their own general health and well-being. Help with medications or personal care can be obtained through a visiting nurse or home care agency, paid and arranged for by the resident or the resident’s family.
A continuing care retirement community aims to provide varying levels of service as a resident ages, from independent living through nursing home care. Because care levels vary as needs change, there is typically an entrance fee along with a monthly service charge that can fluctuate according the level of service required. Medicaid will not cover a stay in an independent living community or a continuing care retirement community.
Seniors in Bellevue have a many options to choose from when it comes to retirement and assisted living. But as Bellevue’s population ages, are there enough services to go around? Next week we’ll examine opportunities and shortcomings in the Bellevue senior housing market.
Chris Rodde is the CEO of SeniorHomes.com, a free resource for people looking for senior housing or senior care for a loved one or themselves. With valuable articles and a comprehensive directory of care options, SeniorHomes.com is the best place to start your search for assisted living, independent living, Alzheimer’s care, a retirement community or home care.
June 27th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Data from the 2000 U.S. Census Report (2010 data isn’t in yet) indicates that between 1990 and 2000, the fastest-growing segment of Bellevue’s population was the 75-84 demographic, which grew 126.7%. Second to that was the 85-and-over demographic, which grew 113.5%. If that’s not surprising enough, consider that the next fastest-growing population segment is the 55 to 59 demographic, which grew by only 39.7% in that same timeframe.
In the year 2000, 13% of Bellevue’s population was comprised of senior citizens (those over the age of 65). The 45 to 64 age group made up 25% of Bellevue’s population – but consider that the data is from ten years ago, and you’ll realize a chunk of that group has now moved into the senior citizen demographic. Bellevue actually has a higher percentage of senior citizen residents than comparison cities within King County studied in the 2000 U.S. Census Report, and a smaller percentage of individuals in the 19 to 44 age demographic than most other comparison cities, and King County as a whole.
So what does all this data tell us about senior living in Bellevue? For one, something about the city appeals to the elderly population. Perhaps it’s the fact that it was once a suburb of the bustling city of Seattle, allowing seniors to live a quiet and relaxed retirement but still be near all the excitement offered by a big city. In recent years, however, Bellevue has begun to establish its own identity, with plentiful opportunities for arts appreciation, convenient travel, and great shopping.
As the Baby Boomer population enters its senior years, with the oldest Boomers hitting the 65-mark this year, Bellevue’s already abundant senior population is likely to explode – a fact the 2010 Census Report will confirm. This theme will have a huge impact on Bellevue’s senior housing industry, such as Bellevue Assisted Living facilities, as well as the Bellevue real estate market overall. In the coming weeks, we’ll examine the current status of Bellevue’s senior housing industry, opportunities, and shortcomings that will impact the local economy in the years to come.
Bio:
Chris Rodde is the CEO of SeniorHomes.com, a free resource for people looking for senior housing or senior care for a loved one or themselves. With valuable articles and a comprehensive directory of care options, SeniorHomes.com is the best place to start your search for assisted living, independent living, Alzheimer’s care, a retirement community or home care.
[O1]Link to: http://www.seniorhomes.com/c/wa/bellevue/assisted-living/
June 23rd, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
This year, summer has taken forever to get here, although the last few days do kinda qualify. As your looking for things to do in the challenging weather conditions, and just about ready to lose your mind from spending all that time indoors, consider two of my favorite – hiking and mtn. biking. Either of these sports is actually resistant to the Seattle soup, and in the case of mtn. biking, can be somewhat enhanced by poor weather.
Last Sunday for Father’s Day I was able to sneak (that’s the wrong word, it was Father’s Day for heaven’s sake) away to St. Edwards Park for an exhilarating ride in the woods. By the time my ride was completed as hour or so later, both my trustee aluminum steed and I were both some covered in mud and slop that we were barely recognizable…..ah the good like.
As real Summer weather quickly approaches, consider these suggestions from the Bellevue Scene. Click Here.
Enjoy!
June 21st, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the Bellevue Real Estate Report for June 21, 2010.
The big news of the week revealed housing starts down 10.0% in May to an annual rate of 593,000 units. Closer inspection of the report reveals that all the drop came from the South. In fact, housing starts were actually UP in all other regions of the country. The South suffered in May with the Gulf oil spill disaster and major flooding. It’s understandable that these unfortunate occurrences would make everyone, including home builders, more risk averse than usual. In any case, starts are UP 24.3% above their low a year ago April, with single-family starts UP 15.3% in the last year.
A little more worrisome was the 5.9% decline in building permits, which was seen nationwide. Of course, any slowdown in building will help speed up the reduction in new homes inventory. Nonetheless, permits are UP 4.4% overall and UP 3.1% for single-family units from a year ago.
Wednesday, Fannie Mae announced “Special Relief Measures” for borrowers whose properties or income are negatively impacted by the Gulf oil spill. Servicers may suspend or reduce these borrowers’ mortgage payments up to 90 days to determine the impact of the disaster on the property or the borrower’s financial condition. If you know someone who may qualify for this relief, please forward them this link: http://www.fanniemae.com/newsreleases/2010/5062.jhtml?p=Media&s=News+Releases
>> Review of Last Week
ONWARD AND UPWARD… Investors appeared to calm down a bit last week, responding more reasonably to the economic situation in Europe and sending stock prices up nicely. All three indexes are now back again in positive territory for the year. The big spike for stocks came Tuesday after European markets and the Euro rallied when Spain and Ireland did well with their debt offerings.
There were a few less than stellar economic reports during the week. The declines in housing starts and building permits for May were disappointing to many, although starts were not as worrisome as they first appeared, as reported above. Also, initial weekly unemployment claims were up by 12,000, while continuing claims edged up 88,000 after the prior week’s 234,000 decline.
But inflation appears under control. At the wholesale level, the Producer Price Index was down 0.3% for May, falling for the second month in a row. The more significant Consumer Price Index was also down, by an expected 0.2%. There was more evidence of strong recovery in the manufacturing sector, with industrial production UP 1.2% in May and UP 8.0% annually for the last six months. Capacity utilization moved up to 74.7% in May, rising 6.4% from last June, the fastest 11-month hike since 1983-84. Supporting these figures, the Empire State Index of manufacturing in the New York region went to 19.6 for June from 19.1 in May.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.3%, to 10450.64; the S&P 500 was UP 2.4%, to 1117.51; and the Nasdaq was UP 3.0%, to 2309.80.
