February 8th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
The Pending Home Sales Index recovered from its November slump, increasing 1.0% in December, putting it 10.9% over its level of a year ago. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun sees “…a broad improvement over year-ago levels. December activity was the fifth-highest monthly tally in two years.” The slump was attributed to the rush before November to grab the tax credit set to expire at the end of that month. We now know the tax credit was extended to buyers who can sign a contract by April 30 and close on the home by June 30. It’s also been expanded, adding a $6500 credit for repeat buyers to the $8,000 credit for first timers. The NAR’s Yun estimates 2.4 million households should take advantage of the credit this year.
The National Association of Realtors also released their adjusted overall outlook for this year and next. They estimate existing home sales will grow from 5.19 million in 2009 to 5.66 million in 2010 and 5.7 million in 2011. They see new home sales growing from 375,000 in 2009 to 446,000 in 2010 and 637,000 in 2011. They believe prices have bottomed, projecting a 3.4% hike in the median price for existing homes to $179,800 this year and then a 4.3% rise to $187,500 in 2011. New homes should go up 3.7% this year to a $221,300 median price and then 4.7% in 2011 to $231,700.
STILL NORTH OF 10,000… Last week, stocks took investors on a wild ride, but when all was said and done, the venerable Dow remained defiantly above 10,000. Investor concerns focused mostly on a “sovereign debt crisis” in Europe. Basically, Portugal had trouble selling its treasuries. Then, Spain, whose 19% unemployment is way worse than any European country except Latvia, raised its deficit forecasts. Finally, people questioned if the Greek government has the fiscal discipline necessary to pay back its loans. European markets tanked and Wall Street roller-coastered. For the week, the Dow was off 0.5%, to 10012.23; the S&P 500 slipped 0.7%, to 1066.19; while the Nasdaq was down just 0.3%, to 2141.12.
Investors also aren’t completely sold on our own recovery. The problem of course is jobs, the most lagging of all economic indicators. Weekly initial jobless claims rose by 8,000, a bit worse than expected. Then Friday’s January employment report showed a loss of 20,000 jobs, when a 13,000 gain was expected. But hey, the unemployment rate fell to 9.7%! Average hourly earnings were UP 0.2% for the month and UP 2.0% over last year. Also, total hours are up at a 1.8% annual rate in the last three months. This works out to about 200,000 jobs a month, showing there’s a growing demand for labor, which companies are meeting by increasing hours. Needless to say, they can’t keep that up indefinitely.
Now some really good news…..Personal income was UP 0.4% in December and personal consumption rose 0.2%. Over the past three months, real inflation-adjusted consumer spending is UP at a strong 3.6% annual rate. Not surprising, given that in the last nine months, compensation per worker is UP at a 4.7% annual rate. In line with that, several retailers announced same store sales, with most beating estimates — some by substantial amounts! The ISM Manufacturing index hit 58.4, a five-year high, and ISM Services went to 50.5 in January, signaling expansion in the non-manufacturing sector too.
February 1st, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Last week began with December Existing Home Sales dropping 16.7%. Some observers felt this was the result of uncertainty over the homebuyer tax credit, scheduled to expire at the end of November. The tax credit was, as we now know, extended into this year, but it wasn’t announced soon enough to help December sales. Nonetheless, Existing Home Sales are UP 15.0% over a year ago. And the median price of an existing home is now $178,300, UP 1.5% over a year ago and the best year-over-year comp since 2006. Finally, inventories are now down to 3.29 million, their lowest reading since March 2006. Wednesday, New Home Sales were reported at a 342,000 annual rate, down 7.6% for December. But inventories are now at 231,000, 59.6% below their mid-2006 peak and at their lowest level since 1971, when the population was two thirds its size today.
STILL SLIPPING… There were plenty of good things to consider last week, but investors chose to dwell on the negative tidbits instead. This sent stocks down for the third week in a row, making January the worst month for the markets since February 2009. The week began with Apple reporting its most profitable quarter ever. Microsoft and SanDisk also made the tech sector look good by beating earnings estimates, but Wall Street worried about the companies’ cautious outlooks. Oh well. We even saw Consumer Confidence UP in January for the third month in a row! For the week, the Dow dipped 1.0%, to 10067.33; the S&P 500 slipped 1.6%, to 1073.87; while the Nasdaq was down 2.6%, to 2147.35.
Friday we got the terrific news that the U.S. economy grew in Q4 of last year at a 5.7% pace, the fastest GDP growth rate in six years. Pessimistic observers seem scared to admit the economy is in fact improving, commenting that inventories accounted for a large part of Q4 growth. In fact, final sales, which is GDP excluding inventories, are UP at an accelerating pace for three straight quarters! The Chicago PMI, expected to decline, instead increased, showing growing strength in Midwest manufacturing. And the employment index came in at the highest level since 2005, reporting its first positive number since 2007.
January 27th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Jamie Moyer has always been one of my favorite Major League Baseball Pitchers, and last week he was a guest speaker at the Bellevue Chamber of Commerce.
Moyer and his wife, Karen, founded The Moyer foundation in 2000 as a way to support programs that directly serve critical needs of children in severe distress. Over the past 10 years, the Moyer foundation has raised more than $19 million to help support 225 different programs including Camp Erin, Camp Mariposa, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and “The Gregory Fund,” Hutch School, Seattle Children’s and many more.
Jamie and Karen Moyer have stated: their goal in life, our goal as a foundation, and our goal as a husband and wife is to try to make this community and this country a better place to live,” Moyer explained.
Moyer’s passion for helping others, and particularly children, came through loud and clear as he spoke about Camp Erin, a nationwide network of bereavement camps for children and teens ages 6 to 17 who have experienced the death of someone close to them. The camp experience is provided free-of-charge and is supported by donations, sponsors and volunteers.
Camp Erin has grown from a single camp in the Seattle area to 36 camps nationwide in 23 states and one in Toronto, Canada. For now, his number one goal for The Moyer Foundation is to continue to raise support and to find a local or national corporate sponsor to put its name on Camp Erin.
Moyer challenged those in attendance at the Bellevue Chamber Luncheon on Thursday to reach out and help those in the local community. Camp Mariposa, a two-day camp for teens living with drug and alcohol issues, is located here on the Eastside and has opportunity for growth. Moyer said, “Children don’t ask to be in the situation they are in. Go to any hospital or just look at the Haiti situation, nobody asks for that,” Moyer explained. “As a foundation, we are trying to help those who need it most- the children.”
Moyer has played baseball for 23 years, and is recovering from a shoulder injury that caused him trouble last year. This year he is ready for spring training with the Philadelphia Phillies. Jamie Moyer is a busy man…..an all-star pitcher, family (they have 8 children), and his ongoing work with The Moyer Foundation. For more on this article click: Bellevue Chamber of Commerce – Jamie Moyer.
January 25th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the weekly report for Bellevue Real Estate, Mortgage, and the Economy for 1/25/10. December housing starts were reported down 4.0% last week. This put them at a 557,000 unit annual rate, a little below expectations. We did have a colder and wetter December than usual, with a good part of the East hit with the biggest snowfall ever recorded for the month. The drop in starts all came from single-family units, but they’re still 27.7% above their January/February 2009 lows. Volatile multi-unit starts were up 12.2% for the month, following their 69.8% November rebound. Building permits, which are less effected by weather, were UP 10.9% in December, to an annual rate of 653,000 units, well above expectations. There was an 8.3% hike in permits for single-family units, which are up 48.5% over their January 2009 low. Over the past two months, the 18.5% gain in building permits is the largest in 20 years. In line with this, the National Association of Home Builders, which held its annual convention last week, reported that builders expect to start construction on 610,000 homes in 2010. That’s UP 38% over last year!
Last week featured a combination of unexpected developments — Chinese credit tightening, Presidential sword-rattling over bank regulatory reform and doubts about Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s Senate confirmation. These surprises shook investors, sending all market indexes down for the week. But China was just raising interest rates to cool down an economy now growing at 10%. And the President’s tough talk to bankers, plus Senators cooling on Bernanke, were seen by many as political efforts to appeal to people who don’t like the Wall Street bailouts. Of course, all this happened after Republican Scott Brown took Ted Kennedy’s Massachusetts Senate seat. Talk about surprises!
The only encouraging words came from corporate pronouncements on Q4 earnings. Results were better than expected, as 47 of the 60 S&P companies reporting delivered upside results. These included biggies like Google, GE, McDonalds’s and IBM. There were also winners in the financial sector, but investor uncertainty pushed stocks down overall. For the week, the Dow fell 4.1%, to 10172.98; the S&P 500 dropped 3.9%, to 1091.76; while the Nasdaq was off 3.6%, to 2205.29.
January 20th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Did you read the story last week regarding the Bellevue Medal of Honor Recipients? I have personally known several high integrity armed service personnel in the local area, and this story was very compelling to me.
Patty Murray presented a pair of local veterans with military decorations during a ceremony at the Jackson Federal Building in Seattle. Sgt. Kurtis Bennett, a former Bellevue resident, received the Purple Heart for wounds sustained during his second tour with a Stryker regiment in Iraq, approximately two years ago. Maj. David Dempster, of Beaux Arts (Bellevue), received the Distinguished Flying Cross for the incrediable task of helping his nearly unconscious pilot guide his aircraft to safety during a mission over North Vietnam, back in 1968. Bennett and Dempster both earned their coveted awards in dire circumstances.
Dempster, an Air Force navigator, was completing a lengthy reconnaissance mission during his “year’s paid vacation in Vietnam” when his pilot began drifting out of consciousness at 70,000 feet. Dempster kept quiet about the incident to protect the pilot’s reputation, but his comrades brought it out 40 years later to recommend him for the Distinguished Flying Cross.
As for Bennett, he was on a routine patrol in Iraq when an IED detonated beneath his Stryker vehicle, causing massive damage to his left leg and both hands. A total of six soldiers were wounded in the explosion, and four required medical evacuations.
For more on this incredible story click Bellevue Medal of Honor.
January 13th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Bellevue Home Show will open on January 22, and run thru January 24th at the Meydenbauer Center in Bellevue, located at 11100 N.E. Sixth Ave., Bellevue. Hours are as follows: 10 a.m. – 8 p.m. Jan. 22-23 and 10 a.m. – 6 p.m. Jan. 24. Tickets range from $5-8.
Eastside homeowners will find a strong emphasis on “green” products and concepts. More than 150 local exhibitors represent the entire scope of the building, remodeling and interior design industries.
The Bellevue Home Show is now in its 28th year, and its venue is smaller and more personable than larger Home Shows. You have the ability to ask specific questions regarding your needs as a home owner. Here are just a few of the businesses represented: Decks by JRW – www.jrwdecks.com, Living Shelter Design Architects – www.livingshelter.com, Shirey Handyman – www.shireyhandyman.com, and Thornberg Construction Company Inc. – www.thornbergconstruction.com.
For more information click on: www.bellevuehomeshow.com
January 11th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
It was reported last week that Pending Home Sales (contracts on existing homes) fell 16% in November, not at all surprising since buyers expected the $8,000 tax credit to expire at the end of October. This artificially boosted contract signings for August-October and artificially depressed them for November. Still, November pending sales were higher than at any time from mid-2007 to mid-2009.
In the mortgage world, most experts feel the rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will head up during the next two years, so smart homebuyers are focusing on taking advantage of the present very favorable rate situation along with the tax credit still available.
A NICE START… The new year began very nicely on Wall Street with investors optimistically sending all major stock market indexes UP for the week. There were several pieces of economic data to feel good about. The ISM Manufacturing index rose to 55.9 in December, its highest level since April 2006, signaling industrial expansion five months in a row and indicating real economic growth at a 4.6% annual rate. The December ISM Services index hit 50.1, also signaling expansion, with its employment index moving to the highest level since September 2008. For the week, the Dow was UP 1.8%, to 10618.19; the S&P 500 was UP 2.7%, to 1144.98; while the Nasdaq was UP 2.1%, to 2317.17.
Retailers across the board came in with higher than expected results for December. For example, Target’s same store sales were up 1.8% and Sears were up 0.4%, with Q4 earnings beating estimates. Auto companies reported December sales at an 11.2 million annual rate. This was a faster rise than expected, up 16% from June. Cash-for-clunkers got things started, but car and truck sales continue to build.
Thursday, Initial Unemployment Claims came in at 434,000, putting the four-week moving average at its lowest level since September 2008. Continuing Claims shrank to 4.8 million. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the major Chicago-based job placement firm, reported layoffs down 72.9% from last year. But the big news came Friday with the December Employment Report. Nonfarm jobs declined 85,000, not as good as expected, but revisions to the prior month’s data showed jobs INCREASED 4,000 in November, their first gain in two years! The December unemployment rate held steady at 10.0%.
January 6th, 2010
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Things are changing…and staying the same in the election of Don Davidson to the Mayors seat on the City of Bellevue. Don Davidson, age 70, was elected to a two-year mayoral term Monday night by fellow council members in a 5-2 vote. Don Davidson rewho replaced Grant Degginger. Conrad Lee, was unanimously was elected deputy mayor.
The last time Don Davidson sat in the mayor’s seat, was in the mid 1990’s, and it was a different time back then. In those days the City of Bellevue was just beginning to emerge as a major commerce center, and was just starting to compete with the City of Seattle in regards to retail shopping and commercial office space.
The main concerns in 2010, are the shortfalls in the city budget, (projected to be at approximately $17M), Bellevue’s light-rail alignment, and Bellevue’s redevelopment of the Bel-Red corridor.
Don Davidson, formerly a Dentist, decided to run for Mayor to join the political conservative movement in the Bellevue atmosphere, and add his guiding input into Bellevue’s light rail alignment. He is also very concerned about doing all that can be done to help Belleuve begin to climb out of the current recession. I support Don Davidson and look forward to the lasting impression he has the ability to make on the future of the City of Bellevue. For more on this story click on Bellevue Mayor.
December 23rd, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
If you are looking for a wonderful Christmas Season Experience, an afternoon of ice skating in Bellevue’s Downtown Park, followed by a dinner at one of Bellevue’s downtown restaurants, capped off by previewing Bellevue’s Snowflake Lane performance nightly at 7 pm, just can’t be beat!
OK…here’s the plan: you want to arrive the the ice skating rink in Downtown Park between 3 and 4 pm, depending on your skill and endurance. Enjoy a couple hours (or so…ahum) of skating. For more details click Bellevue Ice Skating.
Once completed, walk over to the the downtown corridor, and pick a dining establishment to eat. There are dozens to choose from, but a few of my favorites within very close proximity of the Snowflake Lane performance (you can almost watch out the window…almost) are Maggiano’s Little Italy, The Cheese Cake Factory, Andiamo Ristorante, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, and for a lighter fare the reliable Red Robin. For more on Bellevue’s restaurant choices click: Bellevue’s Local Table.
Around 6:45 pm, you want to begin to wander into position on Bellevue Way to enjoy the Snowflake Lane performance. The performance is relatively short at approximatley 15-30 minutes, but is very festive, and puts you in the right mood for the holidays. For more on the details of this performance click: Bellevue’s Snowflake Lane. For a video preview of Bellevue’s Snowflake Lane click: Bellevue’s Snowflake Lane Video.
Now once you have followed this plan, and had a wonderful time I want to hear about it…..c’mon now. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
December 16th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Helen Leuzzi is a compassionate, giving, Bellevue resident with a heart for homeless women. The topic of homeless people of either gender becomes heavy on our hearts with the arrival of frigid winter temperatures. Leuzzi is a member of First Congregational Church, and has designed many programs to keep people off the streets.
First Congregational Church is now the only overnight location available for homeless women on the Eastside. They also have a transitional housing program, a day center, and other miscellaneous support services.
With First Congregatinal’s close proximity to downtown Bellevue, Leuzzi says,”Geographically, I think of downtown Bellevue as a wedding cake, and our church is at the center of the top layer.”
In this special holiday season it is heart warming to hear such compelling stories of compassion and kindness. For more on this story click Homeless Women
